Since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, East Asia has implemented a number of initiatives designed to strengthen monetary and financial cooperation, bolstering the region's resilience to economic and financial vulnerabilities. One such initiative is the ASEAN & 3 Information Exchange and Policy Dialogue, which includes development of early warning systems (EWS) for financial crises. This book examines efforts to develop EWS models. Specifically, the book analyses the current understanding of the causes of currency and banking crises, describes recent progress in developing and applying EWS models for currency and banking crises, reviews methodological isues, assesses the predictive power of EWS models and also highlights areas where further research is required to make these models more effective tools for policy analysis. The case studies apply both parametric and nonparametric approaches to EWS modeling using data from six East Asian countries.

Since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, countries in East Asia have made efforts to promote regional monetary and financial cooperation to complement the evolving international financial architecture. This increased interest in regional monetary and financial cooperation has resulted in several initiatives - the ASEAN Surveillance Process, the ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers Process including its Chiang Mai Initiative of 2000, the Manila Framework Group and the Asia-Europe Finance Ministers Process to name a few. These developments in some ways represent a significant break from the past. Going forward the key challenge is how to set priorites and sequence developments so as to smooth the path to a new regional financial architecture. This two-volume set takes up the issue of developing a road map of policy options, both at the regional and country levels, for carrying forward the ongoing efforts in monetary and financial cooperation in East Asia. Building on a series of core reports and background papers by eminent economists and policymakers around the world commissioned under an ADB technical assistance project, the books explore what is feasible and desirable in regional monetary and financial cooperation and lays out a road map for putting the concept into action over the next several years. Volume 1 contains an overview by Peter Montiel, and three core studies by Olam Chaipravat, Eric Girardin, and Takatoshi Ito and Yung-Chul Park. Volume 2 contains background papers by Robert J. Barro; Elbliog'onore Boiscuvier and Alfred Steinherr; Barry Eichengreen; Jeffrey A. Frankel; Eric Girardin; Jong-Wha Lee; Yung-Chul Park and Kwanho Shin; Ronald McKinnon; Eiji Ogawa, Takatoshi Ito, and YuriNagataki Sasaki; Ramkishen Rajan and Reza Siregar; Yunjong Wang and Wing Thye Woo; and Charles Wyplosz. The volumes and the study on which they were based were conceptualized, supervised, and coordinated by Pradumna B. Rana and Srinivasa Madhur.

This report explains the complex challenges facing the six countries in the renewables-rich Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) as they work to implement a comprehensive framework to enable regional electricity power trading. Against the backdrop of energy market volatility, it details how ADB is helping high-voltage electricity network operators reach a deal on interconnections which could unlock extensive economic benefits for each GMS country. Acknowledging a transparent power-sharing regime is still some way off, it provides a road map to help countries overcome infrastructural challenges and political concerns to build a fully synchronized GMS transmission network.

This report lays out key governance challenges in the management of fiscal risks and contingent liabilities in Asia and the Pacific region from public investments in public-private partnerships and state-owned enterprises. It explains how investments in quality infrastructure can tackle issues around overall infrastructure investment gaps, tight fiscal spaces, and rising debt. Designed as a practical resource to help guide decision-makers, the report highlights why prioritizing the efficiency of infrastructure investments can ensure they deliver maximum economic benefits at the lowest cost.

This report summarizes insights on transparency and integrity in sustainable finance markets shared at a series of webinars hosted by the Asian Development Bank and State Street Global Advisors. The report provides an overview of policy and market practice to enhance transparency, integrity, and efficiency in sustainable finance and to foster the market's development. It discusses efforts to align taxonomies and standards; support transition finance; adapt to the trend toward environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investments; and implement information disclosure and integrity requirements.

This report explains how rising climate and disaster risk can increase the vulnerability of Asia and the Pacific region's urban poor and how engendering systemic change can strengthen their resilience. It emphasizes the need to put them at the center of decision-making and for targeted actions to tackle the drivers of vulnerability. It shows why households and cities are key entry points for the investment and intervention needed to cut risk and improve adaptation. Urging stronger community-level infrastructure, social protection, and urban planning, it underscores how governments can create enabling environments that help build a more resilient future.

Provides a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic issues in developing Asia, including economic growth projections and prospects by country and region. This year's theme chapter explores how to strengthen disaster resilience.

This publication identifies investment approaches, opportunities, and finance mechanisms in Southeast Asia that can promote and catalyze funds for a sustainable ocean economy. It provides an overview of the "blue economy"" and emphasizes its significance for protecting the biodiversity of natural resources in Southeast Asia. The "blue economy" is defined as the sustainable use of ocean and coastal resources to drive economic growth and improve livelihoods, while protecting and nurturing marine ecosystems. The publication looks how multilateral and bilateral funding sources, a market-based approach, incentives, and regulations can contribute to achieving a blue economy. It also discusses how these elements need to be aligned within a cohesive development framework.

This publication provides updates on the bond market in Thailand since 2016. The ASEAN+3 Bond Market Guide series provides information on the investment climate, rules, laws, opportunities, and characteristics of bond markets in Asia and the Pacific. It aims to help bond market issuers, investors, and financial intermediaries understand the local context and encourage greater participation in the region's rapidly developing bond markets. This edition updates the ASEAN+3 Bond Market Guide 2016: Thailand.

This publication examines tourism in Asia and the Pacific, the impacts on it of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, and how it might be reset to contribute more effectively to the Sustainable Development Goals. The report highlights six pathways for promoting systemic change in the sector: a value-driven approach, decarbonization, tourism-led regeneration, improved governance, and sustainable finance. It provides concrete recommendations on how policymakers and industry stakeholders can leverage tourism to foster sustainable development and a green recovery in Asia and the Pacific.

This publication highlights short-term actions that can mitigate pressures and medium-term policy considerations for finance sector resilience in the post-COVID-19 period. The guidance note examines the effects of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on real economies and the measures taken to ease the impact. It notes risks to financial stability, such as an anticipated rise in nonperforming assets. Its recommendations include establishing a framework for epidemic risk financing, buttressing financial stability and macroprudential measures, developing insurance markets for risk sharing and transfer solutions, improving SME financing, and fostering digital transformation.

This publication assesses the Government of Bhutan's financial relief measures for the most affected people, as well as programs and other interventions to address the impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The strategic thrust of interventions for the sector is based on striking the right balance between the immediate need to engage the economically displaced while simultaneously initiating major reforms and investments for a sustainable reopening.

The Pacific region is expected to contract by 0.6% in 2021, and to grow by 4.7% in 2022. This issue of the Pacific Economic Monitor explores how the region can reopen and rebuild. Besides safely resuming travel and protecting health, a resilient recovery will depend on promoting fiscal sustainability and strengthening economic management, including regional cooperation to revitalize tourism.

This report examines the impacts of COVID-19 on labour markets along with adjustment patterns in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Labour markets in Southeast Asia were particularly hit hard in 2020 when government pandemic containment measures were most severe. COVID-19 exacerbated growing inequalities in the region and exposed large gaps in social protection . This report aims to help policymakers identify priorities, constraints, and opportunities for developing effective labour market strategies for economic recovery and beyond.

This report explores how regional cooperation and integration (RCI) can be enhanced in Asia and the Pacific to help the region build back resiliently and sustainably from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The report reflects on lessons learned from efforts to tackle the pandemic through regional cooperation and integration. It provides insights on how region-wide solidarity can be enhanced with the support of multilateral development banks in areas such as trade and investment, connectivity infrastructure, people's mobility, regional public goods, and policy cooperation. The report was jointly prepared by the ADB, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Islamic Development Bank, and the World Bank Group.

This publication provides updates on the bond market in Indonesia since 2017. The ASEAN+3 Bond Market Guide series provides information on the investment climate, rules, laws, opportunities, and characteristics of bond markets in Asia and the Pacific. It aims to help bond market issuers, investors, and financial intermediaries understand the local context and encourage greater participation in the region's rapidly developing bond markets. This edition updates the ASEAN+3 Bond Market Guide 2017: Indonesia.

This edition sets out recent developments in East Asian local currency bond markets and discusses the region's economic outlook, the risk of another taper tantrum, and price differences between labeled and unlabeled green bonds. Emerging East Asia's local currency (LCY) bond markets expanded to an aggregate USD21.7 trillion at the end of September 2021, posting growth of 3.4% quarter-on-quarter, up from 2.9% in the previous quarter. LCY bond issuance rose 6.8% quarter-on-quarter to USD2.4 trillion in Q3 2021. Sustainable bond markets in ASEAN+3 also continued to expand to reach a size of USD388.7 billion at the end of September.

This report forecasts growth in developing Asia of 7.1% in 2021 and 5.4% in 2022 in an uneven recovery caused by divergent growth paths. Its theme chapter explores sustainable agriculture. Growth forecasts are revised up for East Asia and Central Asia from the projections made in April, but down for South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific. This reflects differences in vaccination progress and control of domestic COVID-19 outbreaks but also other factors, including rising commodity prices and depressed tourism. Inflation is expected to remain under control. The main risks to the economic outlook come from the COVID-19 pandemic, including the emergence of new variants, slower-than-expected vaccine rollouts, and waning vaccine effectiveness. Sustainable food production and agricultural systems that are resilient to climate change will be crucial for developing Asia. To transform agriculture in the region, its economies must tackle challenges from changing consumer demand, changing demographics, and a changing and more fragile environment.

The Asia Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Monitor provides data and analysis as a resource for evidence-based policy design. This year's edition focuses on South Asia. This first volume reviews micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) at the country and regional levels. It covers Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, and examines MSME development, access to finance, and policies and regulations. It notes that revitalizing MSMEs by channeling more growth capital to them will be key to a resilient economic recovery from the pandemic. It highlights opportunities in formalizing MSMEs and connecting them to international markets, expanding digital skills, fostering technology-based start-ups, and supporting youth and women entrepreneurs.

This publication describes how state-owned enterprises (SOEs) can access finance on commercial terms, without sovereign guarantees. Doing so can create fiscal space for governments and new sources of finance for important investments. ADB is committed to SOE reform that supports access to commercial finance in its developing member countries, as also emphasized in Strategy 2030. With the rise of commercial finance for SOEs, this publication details the steps to enhance the bankability of SOEs. It also explains how the risks of such borrowing, including defaults and moral hazards created by implicit guarantees, can be managed.

This strategy outlines a regional approach for advancing gender equality and women's empowerment in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). The six GMS countries share common challenges and issues that prevent women from fully benefiting from economic opportunities. Many of these challenges have been further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The strategy identifies strategic directions and key entry points to mainstream gender across all operational areas of the GMS Economic Cooperation Program. It has been designed to add value to the GMS Program Strategic Framework 2030 and to complement national initiatives of the GMS countries to bolster gender equality.

This publication draws on findings from a survey on the green bond market in Malaysia to provide insights on what support is needed to further develop the country's sustainable finance market. The survey assessed the interest of institutional investors in green bond issuances in Malaysia. It helped identify drivers and impediments for the development of country's sustainable finance market, as well as priority areas in which ADB and other development partners could provide support.

This publication shows how ADB continues to explore new ways to deepen its relationship with civil society organizations (CSOs) and increase the impact of its development projects in South Asia. Drawing on comprehensive data, it emphasizes how meaningful CSO involvement throughout the lifecycle of a development project helps ensure ADB's schemes are more organized and better designed to generate positive outcomes. Underlining the value of meaningful CSO engagement, the publication calls for empowering civil society to harness their specialist knowledge and engage them in policy dialogue that can help build a resilient future in Asia and the Pacific.